UK urged to adopt annual migration plan to end incoherent policies
The Institute for Government is calling on Ministers to adopt an annual Migration Plan setting out the government’s objectives for the UK immigration system and how it aims to achieve them.
The thinktank suggests that an annual plan would allow the government to move on from the incoherent way immigration policy has been made in the past and provides an opportunity to demonstrate greater control over the system.
A range of organisations across the political spectrum have recommended similar proposals, pointing to countries around the world that already pursue such models, including Canada and Australia.
Why is a Migration Plan needed?
Last week, the Institute for Government (IfG) published an insight paper outlining the reasons why the government should commit to an annual Migration Plan, and recommendations for what should be included.
The paper highlights the problems with current immigration policy making, saying that the UK typically takes a reactive approach to policy planning, and that changes often get made in response to one of three things: net migration figures released by the ONS, intense lobbying from a sector or civil society group or an international crisis. While the third is unpredictable, the first two follow an increasingly consistent pattern.
Experts suggest that introducing an annual migration plan could put an end to decades of “incoherent, disconnected and unpredictable” policies around work visas, and would discourage Ministers from making the reactive, knee-jerk changes or announcements that successive governments have typically made in response to labour or net migration statistics.
What would be included in an annual Migration Plan?
The IfG suggests that the plan could set out what it expects to happen to migration over the coming three to five years, based on the policy changes it has set out. It should set out a multi-year planning horizon, with the opportunity to make a small number of tweaks in each year’s plan if the government is confident the system is delivering or to make bigger changes if it thinks a new strategy or major policy change is necessary. But crucially those changes – big or small – should be considered in the round, not in a piecemeal way throughout the year.
The paper recommends the following 6 areas should be considered in any future plan:
- A set of clear objectives for the system: In theory, this could range from a broad set of principles to ‘rules’.
- A multi-year planning horizon: Policy change can take 12–36 months to take full effect and in-year lurches should be avoided. The government should publish a three-year plan with annual updates.
- An assessment of the current levels of migration by route: Setting out the key drivers broken down by route – that is, differentiating between people arriving on different kinds of work visas, as students or dependants, or via asylum or other humanitarian routes.
- An assessment of the costs and benefits of migration by route: Clearly stating the implications of current migration levels for key areas like the economy, public services and housing (among others).
- An overview of changes and forecasts by route: A set of policy changes and the expected impact on flows over the next three years.
- Proposed cross-government policy changes: In light of either the cost/ benefit assessment or the changes to immigration routes, the government should set out the proposed wider policy changes necessary (for example, skills, public spending or foreign policy).
Next steps
The Migration Plan recommendation comes as the government prepares to release its hotly anticipated immigration white paper, which it says will lay out plans to restore the UK’s “broken immigration system”. The “immigration blueprint” had been due early this year but is now not expected until after the local elections in May.
The government is yet to formally respond to the recommendation, but it is expected to face growing pressure from organisations to consider the proposals, after Directors from Onward, Centre for Policy Studies, British Future, IPPR and the IfG have all signed a letter in the Times urging the government to introduce an annual migration plan.
The IfG paper concludes by saying the plan would be a more predictable approach to developing policy, giving the certainty that employers, universities and trade associations need.
Lastly, it would build credibility by putting the plan at the forefront of the migration debate, allowing for a more honest assessment about the pros and cons of migration as part of the government’s wider agenda.
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